After a bumper year for cars in Europe, growth in 2024 is expected to slow significantly, according to the carmakers’ association ACEA (Brussels; www.acea.auto).

In early December, the group said it expects new registrations in the EU to rise 12% this year. “Despite this, registrations are expected to remain relatively low, at over 10.4 mn units, nearly 20% less than the volumes recorded in 2019.”

But there will be no double-digit expansion next year, the group noted. “Anticipating renewed growth in new EU car registrations in 2024, albeit at a slower pace, we project an approximate 2.5% increase, with sales volumes expected to reach nearly 10.7 mn cars.”

The association’s forecast of such meagre growth for new car sales in the EU is around what others are predicting for the global market. Dutch bank ING, for example, noted that the global light vehicle market will enjoy an increase of around 8% this year. “Following such a notable bounce, we expect that next year’s rate of growth will moderate to 2-3%, with the three largest auto markets – China, the United States and Europe – all growing within that range. We expect a more balanced picture between production and sales in 2024, reflecting greater synchronisation between supply and demand next year.”

According to a media report, the Korea Automotive Technology Institute (Katech, Pungse-Myeon; www.katech.re.kr/eng) said it expected global car sales to expand 2.4% next year to 92.2 mn units after strong growth in 2023, noting that disruptions to global supply chains caused by the pandemic are to be resolved by the end of this year.

The Economist Intelligence Unit was a touch more optimistic about the coming 12 months, forecasting 3% for turnover for the global passenger car market. “A number of factors will constrain sales, including weak global economic growth, elevated living costs in developing countries and higher interest rates. Geopolitical risks will also remain high owing to the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, and rivalry between the US and China, forcing companies to rework their supply chains and investment strategies”

The international market for EVs is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.9% between 2023 and 2035, according to a report from data and analytics company GlobalData (www.globaldata.com) quoted in an article by Power Technology, a unit of the company. The report said the passenger EV market is expected to register a CAGR of 26.1% during the period, with commercial EVs seeing a growth of 15%.

Despite such rosy predictions, numerous carmakers have cut or delayed investments for expanding the production of EVs, and others have slashed the workforce to reduce costs. 

In Europe, partially or fully electric vehicles – those with batteries or hybrids – secured 46.7% of the market in the first nine months of 2023, according to the ACEA, with petrol and diesel models at just above 50% and other types of vehicles responsible for the remainder.

Related: UK carmakers produce record number of EVs

The group said battery-electric cars exhibited robust growth, surging 55% in the period, with market share expected to reach 14.5% by year’s end. The share of BEVs will rise to 20% in 2024, ACEA president Luca de Meo said recently, with market share set to jump another 43% next year. 

The EU recently opened an investigation into Chinese subsidies for EV production on concerns that cheaper cars could hurt local production. This may be spurring cooperation in Europe. According to the German business daily Handelsblatt, VW is considering working with Renault on its planned EUR 20,000 EV.

Plasteurope.com has decided to end the year on a slightly different note. Instead of taking you, dear reader, to another website with our picks of the year, we’ve decided to make things easier and brought everything under the common roof of the Plasteurope.com website and magazine. From automotive over financial reports to recycling, we’re bringing you an analysis of the year that was, with hints of what you could look forward to in 2024. Our goal, simple as always, is to help you make better business decisions. Hope you enjoy reading our Year-Enders 2023!