Business pessimism has risen since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, with more companies bracing for lower sales this year, according to a global survey by trade credit insurer Allianz Trade (Paris; www.allianz-trade.com), formerly known as Euler Hermes.

The survey, entitled “Troubled trade: How will exporters adapt in 2022?” and published in April, found that the share of companies worried about declines in turnover rose to 22% from just 6% in an earlier round of questioning. These firms worked mostly in sectors for chemicals, energy and utilities, and machinery and equipment.

Allianz Trade said the survey showed that businesses are planning to diversify export markets and increase investments in new markets to cope with the weaker demand. However, with no end in sight to the conflict, the risk of the slowdown becomes greater the longer the conflict lasts, potentially pushing global trade into a severe recession.

Half of companies polled said they viewed state support as a lifeline, a way to protect their businesses from the fallout of the war. But Allianz Trade said in the absence of a much more severe economic shock, there is unlikely to be the return of extensive “whatever it takes” policy support enacted during the pandemic.

The five top concerns for managers centred on high energy prices (57%), geopolitical tensions (50%), increased transportation bottlenecks (49%), input costs and shortages (46%), and high funding costs (42%).

More than a third of respondents predicted a significant impact from higher energy prices, with companies in the UK and Italy expressing the most concern. Allianz Trade forecast oil prices to average USD 101/bb (EUR 97/bbl) this year, with one scenario predicting a peak above USD 150/bbl.

The Omicron variant of coronavirus also continues to pose risks to demand and logistics. Assuming that mobility at a national level returns this month to a situation more in line with non-pandemic conditions, Omicron outbreaks for this year to date will have cost 0.4 percentage points of economic growth in 2022, according to Allianz Trade.

In its central scenario, the credit specialist said China’s GDP will grow 4.9% this year, with a repeat of 2020 considered a worst-case result.

Related: Geopolitical events hurt trade flows

The war has created bottlenecks at the European level, and Covid-19 outbreaks in China could have broader global repercussions. The number of container vessels anchored outside Chinese ports in March and April were still above normal. Consequently, delivery times are likely to remain elevated for longer, albeit below peaks seen in 2021.

Production shortfalls and depleting inventories hint towards a risk of a double-dip in global trade in the first half of this year. Approximately half of respondents in Italy, the UK, and Germany said shortages or high input cost will become more of a challenge in the months ahead.

More than 40% of exporters predicted that payment terms will increase because of the war, and more than half anticipate a rise in non-payment risk in the next six to 12 months. This compares with less than one-third before the Russian invasion. Exporters in Germany and the UK voiced the most concern about the risk of non-payment and default.

For the main European export markets, Allianz Trade said it expects insolvencies to rise more than 10% this year but to remain 5% below pre-Covid levels at the end of 2023.

Should trade embargoes intensify between Europe and Russia, then 47% of exporters said they would look for new energy suppliers, 41% for new suppliers of non-energy commodities, and 41% will increase selling prices, according to the survey.

The top three export strategies for adapting to the war environment are to target new export markets (47%), find new suppliers, and hire new providers of transportation services. And 44% of exporters said they would seek more investment for international development than they had planned before the invasion against Ukraine.