Just over 500 exhibitors will be attending the “IAA Mobility” motor show in Munich / Germany from 7 to 12 September. The new edition of the show is being held for the first time in Munich, as opposed to Frankfurt. In 2017 a good 1,000 companies exhibited in Frankfurt while the 2019 edition had only 800 exhibitors and half the number of visitors (see Plasteurope.com of 03.02.2020).

That these are “uncertain times” is one explanation from the circles of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA, Berlin; www.vda.de) for why such a (relatively) small number of companies will be presenting themselves in Munich. The German carmakers are all there, but in some cases only with a pared-down programme, such as VW, which will be attending with its core brand and subsidiary, Audi. In other news, all the Asian companies, from Daihatsu to Toyota, are absent – most likely for coronavirus-related reasons. The only exception is Hyundai. Only Renault and its subsidiary brand Dacia are joining from Europe. What about Peugeot, with Opel and Fiat? Nope. From the US? Only Ford.

The situation is similar in the supplier camp, where the list ranges from Bosch to ZF and also includes some plastics processors such as ElringKlinger, Plastic Omnium, and Valeo. As a result, it will probably be difficult to fill two entire halls with automotive suppliers alone (as was usual in Frankfurt). Of the total of 18 halls at the Munich exhibition centre, six are occupied by automobiles, another two by bicycle manufacturers, and one will accommodate the IAA conference.

The new concept of IAA will not be a simple car show with a classic ambience. It is also expected to feature pedelec courses for senior citizens, exercises against neck pain, and a pavilion hosted by the Bavarian Camping Association. Even Lego is involved. “The IAA 2021 will devote a lot of space to the topics of climate protection and sustainability […] with a comprehensive mobility mix including cars, e-bikes, e-scooters and the integration of public transport,” as VDA president Hildegard Müller promised at the presentation of the new concept.

In the end, the Bavarian location might at least ensure that the first IAA there will be a festival with many visitors. After all, “Oktoberfest” was cancelled last year, and will not be taking place this year either. Whether the IAA will be able to celebrate a happy return to the new location will only become clear in two years’ time, at which point Covid-19 will hopefully be history. “What will move us next?” – that remains the question until then.

According to a global consumer survey, Digital Auto Report – as part of the IAA mobility sustainability lounge – conducted by PwC’s Strategy&, a majority of people are willing to change their personal mobility behaviour in order to reduce CO₂ emissions. Mobility behaviour of people in Germany, the US and China has been detailed in the study, according to which, in Germany, the percentage of people willing to change their behaviour is 70%, in China 97% and in the US 52%.

What’s interesting is that despite the high level of willingness to reduce their own carbon footprint, people signal a pronounced affinity for individual transportation in a post-coronavirus world. In Germany, 44% of people want to buy a new car in the next 24 months – which is twice as many as a year ago. And just under half of Germans want to increasingly cover shorter distances on foot or by bike in the future. 26% intend to avoid short-haul flights, and one-fifth say they will switch from a combustion engine to an electric car. In China, over 60% want to switch to the alternative drive. While cars and bicycles emerge as clear winners from the pandemic, public transport is seen as a loser.

According to the report, the total vehicle parc projections until 2035 stagnate in Europe (-0.6% p.a.) and Japan (-0.9% p.a.) versus a marginal growth in the US (+1.3% p.a.) and stronger growth in China (+3.9% p.a.) which is driven by growing mobility demand, customer preferences for an own car and vehicle disposal rate. Vehicle connectivity is advancing with 50% of total parc connected in Europe by 2025 (US by 2023, China by 2029). While OEMs are reaching a critical size with their connected service customer base, they still struggle with reliable service delivery at scale. E-mobility is at its inflection point in Europe driven by strong government incentives and regulations with 27% BEV share of new car sales in 2025 ahead of China (19%), US (6%) and Japan (5%). The slow-charging infrastructure build-up will soon become the biggest growth hurdle.