Environment and climate officials from the Nordic Council of Ministers (Copenhagen; www.norden.org) have released a report highlighting an urgent need for comprehensive, globally binding rules in the upcoming international treaty for tackling plastic pollution. 

The group said the report is “intended to support and inform ongoing negotiations for an international, legally binding instrument”.

Its publication comes just weeks after the UN Environment Programme (UNEP; www.unep.org) published its draft plastics treaty, which includes binding rules, but also various voluntary and non-binding measures.

Related: Study calls for bold UN treaty

“Without new and effective control measures, mismanaged plastics is set to double in 20 years,” said Espen Barth Eide, Norwegian minister of climate and environment. “We now have a window of opportunity to develop an effective plastic treaty by the end of 2024.”

The report said without common global rules and harmonised action, coordination and collaboration, the plastics policy landscape “would likely remain fragmented, the adoption of far-reaching policies limited, and the system’s ability to deal with complex international plastic value chains insufficient”.

The report presents two scenarios of how the plastics system could evolve by 2040 – one where global rules are adopted and the other operating as usual. Under the global-rules scenario, the group gives 15 global policy interventions that it said would reduce virgin plastic production and consumption, eliminate single-use and problematic plastics, mandate substitution and expand safe reuse, recycling, durability and repair. 

These “far-reaching” policies could cut annual volumes of mismanaged plastic waste by 90% and virgin plastic use by 30% by 2040 versus 2019 levels, the council noted. 

Related: Are we even ready to eliminate single-use plastics?  

They could also prevent 184 mn t/y of plastic waste by 2040, leading to a sevenfold increase in global recycling, from 29 mn t in 2019 to 201 mn t, which would require global collection rates to be above 95% and recycling rates to range between 15% and 67% for specific plastic applications. 

To support this, extended producer responsibility (EPR) schemes would need to be implemented, with fees designed to operate on a net-cost basis towards developing the necessary infrastructure.

But the report cautioned that to achieve the results assumed under the global-rules scenario, the policies would need to be implemented across all jurisdictions. If some large countries did not engage in this level of adoption, the results would significantly worsen, it warned. 

In addition – despite the scaleup of reduction and recycling – an estimated 249 mn t of plastic waste would still be generated in 2040, requiring controlled disposal. 

This would vary by region. Controlled disposal volumes in Europe, the US, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Oceania, would drop 46% by 2040 versus 2019. But, volumes in other regions would increase 74% because of a lack of waste management infrastructure, as well as economic and population growth outpacing the adoption of better solutions. 

According to the report, production of virgin plastics would soar by 66% by 2040 under its business-as-usual scenario, reaching 712 mn t from 430 mn t in 2019. This increase would consequently force the volume of mismanaged plastics to nearly double from 110 mn t in 2019 to 205 mn t by 2040, and plastic waste to expand from 385 mn t to 646 mn t in the same timeframe.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the plastic system would also jump by 63% from 2019 to 2040, a trajectory that the report said is incompatible with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

Public expenditure under business as usual is also estimated higher versus the global-rules scenario, at USD 1.7 tn (EUR 1.6 tn) compared with USD 1.5 tn respectively. The savings would mainly accrue from reductions in plastic volumes, resulting in less plastics to collect and manage. However, this would mainly apply to regions with well-developed infrastructure; others would still need to invest more in expanding their waste management systems.

Both scenarios modelled would see 12 mn jobs by 2040. Under business as usual, 80% of jobs would be in virgin plastic production and conversion, with the remainder in waste management. In the global-rules scenario, 40% would be in virgin plastic production and conversion, 24% in waste management, 20% in production of other materials and 16% in new areas such as reuse. 

The Council commissioned UK sustainability advisory and investment group Systemiq (London; www.systemiq.earth) to prepare the report. The plastics applications covered include packaging, household and consumer goods, textiles, fishing and aquaculture, agriculture, construction, transportation, and electronics. 

Analysis was conducted across eight areas: Europe, including Turkey; the US and Canada; Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia; Central and South America and the Caribbean; China; South and Southeast Asia and Eurasia; India; and Africa and the Middle East. 

The report can be downloaded from the Nordic Council website. The Nordic Council is made up of the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland and Iceland) as well as Greenland, the Faroe Islands and Åland, an autonomous region of Finland.