Growth in synthetic rubber demand is forecast for all regions. In the year 2000 consumption in Western Europe will have risen to 2.54m tonnes (1.9% p.a); Central Europe to 368,000 tonnes (4.9% p.a.); and Middle East & Africa to 190,000 tonnes (2.9% p.a.).

Western Europe
In Western Europe synthetic rubber (SR) consumption increased at a rate of 9.8% from 2.01m tonnes to 2.23m tonnes during 1994. In 1995, according to the European Section Statistical Committee of the International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers (IISRP, 2077 South Gessner Road, Houston, Texas 77063-1123 / USA) SR consumption is estimated to have risen by 3.8% to 2.31m tonnes. Over the medium term an annualised growth rate of 1.9% is predicted, leading to a projected consumption of 2.54m tonnes in the year 2000. Highlights in Western Europe include:

• Due to the growing demand for tyres with lower rolling resistance, the consumption of emulsion styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) has stabilised while solution SBR continues to increase. As a result, the consumption of solution SBR is expected to increase from 113,000 tonnes in 1995 to 172,000 tonnes by the year 2000 (8.8% p.a.). Total SBR, emulsion + solution + high styrene, will increase by a modest 1.3%.

• High-Styrene SBR is showing zero growth reflecting the pattern in the shoe industry.

• Demand for polybutadiene rubber (BR) in 1995 is expected to have shown a 2.5% growth due to both increased production of tyres with low rolling resistance and its use in plastics modification.

• Automotive production in Western Europe increased by 6% in 1995. As a result, consumption of ethylene propylene rubber (EPDM) and solid acrylonitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) increased in 1995 by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively. polychloroprene rubber (CR) registered a decline in the same period of 4.0% due to the continuing trend of substitution by other SR elastomers. For auto-related elastomers, annual average increases to the year 2000 are expected to be 2.3% for EPDM, 2.2% for NBR solid, and nil growth for CR.

• Natural rubber consumption expanded by 5.1% during 1995 from 890,000 to 935,000 tonnes due mainly to the growth in the production of truck tyres. Natural rubber is expected to grow at an annualized rate 1.1% to 988,000 tonnes by the year 2000.

• Total synthetic rubber demand is forecast to grow at 1.9% annually from 1996 to 2000.

Central Europe
Economic recovery in Central Europe has been stronger than earlier forecast reflecting higher estimated consumption through the year 2000. Steady growth of 4.9% for SR, and 10.2% for NR (used mainly in tyres) is forecast as industry restructures. Non-tyre elastomers are expected to grow faster than European averages: EPDM at 14.9%, NBR at 4.6% and CR at 5.3%.

The IISRP is of the view that markets in Europe (West and Central) are becoming increasingly harmonised, and that developments in Central Europe can no longer be isolated from Western Europe. Changes in manufacturing patterns may mean that, whilst growth in Western Europe will be flat, the development of growth will still be seen when Europe is considered as a whole.

Middle East & Africa
In the Middle East and Africa steady growth, particularly in the tyre industry, is expected to result in consumption of 190,000 tonnes of SR by the year 2000 for an average annual growth rate of 2.9%. Natural Rubber is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.0% to 210,000 tonnes.

READER SERVICE: IISRP statistics on synthetic rubber consumption / forecast by regions: World, Europe, Middle East, Africa, North & Latin America: PIE-No. 39205.