Theory No. 1
Worries and fears that a possible depletion of mineral oil reserves could jeopardise the raw materials basis for plastics will continue to be completely unfounded over the next several decades. According to experts, mineral oil reserves will last until 2040 at least, and probably much longer, since new mineral oil reserves will be discovered and new processes developed for the conversion of shale oil and tar sand. Reserves of both these together are more than 500 times as great as all the world´s known mineral oil reserves.

Theory No. 2
Despite the existence of sufficient mineral oil and natural gas reserves for plastics production, renewable raw materials will gain increasing importance (in some cases as substitutes for petrochemical-based polymers). The reasons are primarily emotional and can be grouped under the catch phrase “back to nature.”

Theory No. 3
Global demand for plastics will continue to display above-average growth. Average annual growth of 7% in tonnage terms is expected for the chief thermoplastics up to 2005; demand for these ran at some 110 m tonnes in 1998. If this forecast proves to be correct, world consumption will rise to some 170m tonnes in 2005. In 1998, the entire world plastics market – i.e. all polymers that went primarily into finished plastics – totalled 120-140m tonnes.

Theory No. 4
Capacity expansions for plastics will be implemented primarily in Asia and South America over the next few years. In Asia, in particular, new world-scale facilities are being built on a scope that would have been inconceivable not so long ago. This is one reason why further global shifts can come about in the flow of plastics goods.

Theory No. 5
The rise and fall of prices for commodity plastics will continue in future – probably at even shorter intervals and with even greater price swings. By contrast, a downward trend is evident in prices for engineering thermoplastics, even longer term, due to global competition and less expensive forms of production.

Theory No. 6
The fundamental structural changes and concentration processes in the plastics production sector worldwide are far from being completed. In Europe, in particular, there will be spectacular new company mergers over the next few years, leading to a dramatic reduction in the number of raw materials suppliers. On this point, Plasticus, who writes the editorials for the magazine “Kunststoffe”, asked in the November issue: “What are the consequences for plastics converters?” And the answer followed promptly – “Certainly beneficial ones. With the mechanisms of competition in place, fewer, but stronger suppliers are better for the market and for technological development than many weak ones.”

Theory No. 7
As regards plastics resins, the importance of distributors and trading houses is increasing still further. In future, these will not be involved primarily in the distribution of small quantities but will take on new tasks in consulting, customer service and logistics. Trade and distribution are increasingly developing across the borders of Europe and are set to take on global proportions.

Theory No. 8
Microsystem technology, nanotechnology for innovative materials, adaptive and “intelligent” material concepts – these and other, similar research projects and applications require tailor-made polymers, often in extremely small quantities. New opportunities are thus opening up for those wishing to start their own businesses in the development and production of highly-specialised polymer systems.