Although US consultants not long ago estimated that global growth rates for PET would keep pace with new plant construction or even stay somewhat ahead, many observers are beginning to wonder whether research is keeping pace with the actual state of the market. Certainly, the statement that global PET markets should be in balance by 2008 or 2009 appears doubtful. Plant operating rates have hovered consistently below 80% since 2001 because of the many new capacity additions since 1995. As if the current glut were not already troubling enough, a number of new production facilities are currently under construction in India, and all output is bound for export markets

Reliance Industries (RIL, Mumbai; www.ril.com), for example, is planning to install 130,000 t/y of new capacity, manmade fibres manufacturer Futura Polyesters (Mumbai; www.futurapolyesters.com) is expected to expand output by 30,000 t/y and South Asian Petrochemical (ASPET), a subsidiary of Dhunseri Tea & Industries Ltd (Calcutta; www.dhunseritea.com), is building a mammoth plant with a capacity of 140,000 t/y.

As with most other commodities, the principal driver in PET is Asia Pacific, while growth in the more mature western European and North American markets is slowing. Despite the surge in demand from Asian customers, an increasing volume of material produced in the region continues to find its way into the world market.

Urged on by suffering PET producers in Europe, the European Commission (EC) is now hurrying to close the door on additional imports from Asia. The commission recently slapped penalty duties on product from Australia, China and Pakistan (see PIE 07, 2004). Now the focus is being extended to other Asian countries. Latest to feel the bite of EU sanctions is Indo PET Ltd (Lopburi / Thailand; www.indorama.net), which is facing penalties totalling EUR 110/t. The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is also investigating PET imports from Thailand, as well as India and Indonesia. A decision by the FTC on what action to take is scheduled to be made in July, with possible penalties being levied in September 2004. Authorities in Brazil, too, are mulling anti-dumping duties on exports of PET not only from Asian countries such as China, South Korea, Taiwan, but also from its neighbour Argentina, and even the US.