World trade grew at a monthly rate of 2.0% in October on what looked to be a rebound in EU activity, according to Germany’s Institute for the World Economy (IfW, Kiel; www.ifw-kiel.de). The increase followed a 0.2% monthly gain in September despite lower exports from both Germany and the EU.

The October data was a case of good news, bad news, according to researchers: “The strong trade figures are therefore a positive sign for growth in the fourth quarter. China’s trade, on the other hand, is following the downward pull of a subdued global economy.”

The EU led the way in exports and imports, with the former rising 2.5% on the month, and the latter up 2.4%, the institute reported. 

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Head researcher Vincent Stamer said, “According to the indicator values, the EU’s five largest economies – Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands – were able to increase their exports in October, which is a very positive sign at the start of the fourth quarter.”

Shipments from Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, increased 1.8%, the institute said, as incoming freight slipped 0.2%.

US imports grew 2.1% as imports edged 0.2% higher, according to the data. China was in the red on both sides of the trade picture, with exports off 1.4% and imports down 1.2%. 

The global trade in standard containers points to a smoothly functioning global network, the institute said, with volume up sharply in September and remaining above 14 mn units in October, close to the peak of two years ago.

“On the container shipping side, nothing stands in the way of a good Christmas business this year,” Stamer noted. “The limiting factor is likely to be the rather gloomy economic outlook and continuing inflation.”

Low water levels have reduced traffic through the Panama Canal, but “the situation does not pose a major problem for global container shipping”, the institute said.