Was the optimism premature? According to the most recent survey by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel, Germany; www.ifw-kiel.de), international trade failed to develop as well in May as experts had expected in April (see Plasteurope.com of 11.05.2022). The institute’s trade indicator predicts that trade stagnated in May.

The expected development of imports and exports for major economies is close to zero, the institute said. The clearest changes are anticipated for China, where a decline is particularly evident with a forecast for a 4.1% drop in imports largely due to weeks of lockdown closures that likely led to a dramatic decline in domestic consumption.

Conversely, exports from the People’s Republic seem to be picking up again with a projected increase of 1.9%. The gradual reopening of the container port in Shanghai means most export goods have now been processed. At the same time, the traffic jam in front of the port is increasing again. According to the institute, more than 3% of the global freight capacity for container ships is stuck there.

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Estimates for Germany – Europe’s largest economy – showed sideways movement, with exports seen up only 0.2% from the previous month, and imports expected to edge 0.3% lower. The situation in the EU was largely the same as exports were predicted down 0.2% and imports were seen off a mere 0.1%.

Internationally, little or nothing is happening in goods traffic, which showed a likely 0.2% decline. Vincent Stamer, who oversees the indicator, said that although the immediate turmoil caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to have been worked through, the war, high energy prices, and supply shortages of numerous products are hampering developments in global trade.