Vehicle sales are picking up again throughout the world, the crisis seems to have been overcome. In some countries, sales figures in the first few months of this year rose by as much as 40%. The same is true of the utility vehicle market, which has livened up significantly since the beginning of the year. The positive figures released by the Federal Statistics Office in Germany also give reason for cautious optimism: 16 automotive industry suppliers reported insolvency in the first three months of the year compared with 25 in the same period of last year. The entire year 2009 saw 88 insolvencies compared with just 26 in 2008. The figure is unlikely to return to the pre-crisis level this year, but a second wave of bankruptcies – as had been forecast by various sources at the end of 2009 ("Despite full order books, we will see many insolvent companies in the next few months," said Siegfried Frick from Deloitte) – appears increasingly unlikely.

VDA (Berlin; www.vda.de) president Matthias Wissmann also sees the current situation as positive: "German motor industry suppliers have steered their way better than their competitors through the economic and financial crisis. Since autumn 2009, orders from Germany and abroad have been up again, and the number of orders received so far has risen by almost 40%. Turnover has climbed by 25% and, at the same time, the total number of employees has fallen by just 4.5% compared with the equivalent period of last year."

Despite these positive signs, many auto suppliers from the plastics industry do not share this confidence in a sustainable upswing. For them, the indications of a final end to the crisis are not yet clear enough. Their critical stance is supported by a study entitled "Money vs. Technology 2009," from Deloitte and IHS Global Insight, published at the beginning of 2010. According to this study, German suppliers have built up considerable overcapacities in the last few years. In the chassis, drive unit and electronics segments, the overcapacities are estimated to be around 30%, and for interior furnishings – one of the strongest areas for plastics converters – the figure stands at 40%. As a result, 57% of companies plan to cut capacities. Furthermore, 54% of those questioned expect a wave of takeovers from 2011.

The overriding issues of obtaining new financing and reducing overcapacities are currently being overshadowed by the desperate supply problems in the plastics industry. Polypropylene compounds, which account for around 40% of the total, both for interior parts and for exterior applications, are heavily affected by shortages. The same is true of polyamides – primarily the 6.6 types – where the majority of producers have been complaining for some time now about inadequate supplies of raw materials. Price hikes of double and sometimes even triple-digit proportions are par for the course, as is shown by the two A-Plastixx indices for polymer prices in the automotive industry. This is coupled by the current weakness of the euro, making it more attractive to export to dollar markets and creating additional sales.

Should the upswing in car sales continue, it could result in a considerable amount of distortion. The German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA, Frankfurt / Germany; www.vda.de) reported that 3.6m cars were sold from January to March in western Europe, an increase of 11% over the same quarter of the previous year. Things will certainly cool off as soon as the positive consequences of the economic incentive schemes come to an end. The first indications of this were apparent in April, which registered the first decrease for 10 months. In Germany, for example, the number of new registrations was down by more than 20% on the same period of last year. A key mainstay is exports, which added nearly 50% in the same period.

In the opinion of industry expert Ferdinand Dudenhöfer, Germany will be the biggest loser in the global car market this year. "The scrappage premium that expired last year is now causing the market to slump considerably," he says. Over the year as a whole, car sales could well decline by a good 25%, to 2.8m units.

Central and eastern Europe are also struggling. Sales have been particularly hard hit in Hungary (down 53%), Romania (down 50%) and Bulgaria (down 43%). Exceptions were the Czech Republic (up 41%) and Slovenia (up 10%). In the first four months of this year, 238,300 cars were registered in the new EU countries, about 19% less than in the same period of 2009.
The general recovery also embraces the German utility vehicle market. May alone saw a year-on-year rise of 12%. This means that the market has been in recovery mode for three months in succession. It also means that the harder hit business involving vehicles above 6t is at last also picking up. Exports, up 52%, showed similar strong growth to the car sector. MAN, for example, recently raised its 2010 forecast to 50,000 trucks sold, which would be a rise of 25%.

Global demand for new vehicles is expected to climb by 7.9% to 57.1m units this year, according to a study by the Centre Automotive Research of the University of Duisburg-Essen (CAR, Duisburg / Germany; www.uni-due.de/car) headed by Dudenhöfer. In his opinion, 2011 will set a new record with 60.3m cars sold. In virtually all the markets with the exception of western Europe, demand and production have picked up much faster than expected. The main growth driver remains China, which, in the first five months of the year, overtook the United States for the first time as the world's biggest sales market by units.

Looking into the future, predictions put car sales in 2025 at 78m units – a further significant increase compared with the present figures, due mainly to spiralling demand in Asia and South America. On the other hand, most of these vehicles will not be propelled solely by a combustion engine. According to CAR studies, nearly 56m vehicles will be hybrid (mild and full-hybrid), plug-hybrid or battery-operated electric vehicles. The first sustainable changes in the concept and body design with an increasing tendency towards lightweight construction – and thus towards the plastics industry – are clearly evident.

At the same time, the market for energy storage units for the automotive industry is estimated to be worth EUR 130 bn, of which lithium ion batteries alone will account for EUR 77 bn. Although the application of plastics in direct battery production is comparatively small, the situation is very different with radiators, control systems and other units such as housings.

Despite the minor success of small and ultra-small (second) vehicles, there could be a trend towards intelligent urban vehicles. Industry insiders predict greater cooperation between motorcycle and car developers. One example is the electrically powered Renault study "Twizy", in which the passenger sits behind the driver. In future, too, plastics converters will have plenty of scope for creativity.

Automotive Engineering: Vehicle Sales 2009 – 2012, worldwide (in 1.000 pieces)
	2009	2010 Prediction	2011 Prediction	2012 Prediction
USA	10,432	12,060	13,145	13,934
China	8,381	10,500	11,500	12,547
Japan	3,924	4,200	4,220	4,244
Germany	3,807	2,830	3,050	3,150
Russia	1,466	1,580	2,050	2,380
Brazil	3,009	3,150	2,950	2,850
UK	1,995	2,060	2,130	2,200
Italy	2,158	2,090	2,150	2,190
France	2,269	2,045	2,120	2,150
India	1,815	2,000	2,140	2,290
Spain	953	1,090	1,250	1,380
Canada	1,462	1,520	1,566	1,597
South Korea	1,030	1,190	1,230	1,279
Global market	52,944	57,135	60,299	63,433
Year-on-year in %	-5.10%	7.90%	5.50%	5.20%

Source: CAR University Duisburg-Essen