Not that long ago, key automotive players were looking predominantly to China and India for new business. Now, another growth market, Russia, is moving into the spotlight. While many industry majors such as GM have been active there for years, others are now rushing to make up lost ground. In parallel with this development, OEMs no longer are willing to bear the currency risk involved in exports to the dollar zone and are urging their suppliers to manufacture more of their products there. South America is being increasingly put forward as a potential venue.

Alongside new application possibilities for plastics, CO₂ emissions and further weight reduction in cars, these were two of the topics debated outside the official lecture programme at the international "Plastics in Automotive Engineering" conference held in Mannheim / Germany from 5-6 March 2008. Organised by the VDI Society for Plastics Technologies (VDI-K, Düsseldorf / Germany; www.vdi.de/kunststoffe), the event attracted more than 1,500 visitors.

The number of cars on the world's roads will rise to 1 bn by 2011, market research company R.L. Polk & Co estimates. It forecasts average growth rate of 5.7% in Asia over the next three years, with North America and Europe thought likely to grow by 1.3% and 2% respectively over the same period. Currently, western Europe is rather weak, with the exception of France, where the market has now picked up again after a slight depression last year. Nevertheless, for auto makers, a solid presence in these traditional saturated markets is still essential for ensuring global success.

Eastern Europe, despite a certain economic slowdown in the automotive industry, is almost on a par with Asia, with average growth of 4.3%. However, the initial euphoria there has since evaporated, and Czech, Polish and Hungarian companies are waging a competitive battle with countries farther east. The automotive sector in these countries is likely to be in a similar situation as western Europe in a few years.

Russia, on the other hand, is being seen as the new sales mecca for Western manufacturers, as Russian consumers’ demand for new cars grows in proportion to their rising incomes. Both the middle class and country's industry are flourishing. Between January and May 2007, sales of foreign cars set a new record. According to the car manufacturers’ committee in the Association of European Businesses in Russia, 561,737 cars from foreign production were sold in Russia in the first five months. Assuming that growth remained consistent over the full year, this would be an increase of 75% against 2006, when the growth rate was nearly 72%.

Market studies show that Russia will be the largest market in Europe in terms of new registrations by 2010, a phenomenal development that contrasts with the situation in the mature markets of western Europe. Even now, Russia is in fourth place in Europe behind Germany, Italy and the UK, with 2.35m new registrations in 2007. More than 1.5m of the cars registered were non-Russian makes. Worldwide, the country ranks eighth in new registrations. For comparative purposes: Russia has a population of 142m compared with 82m in Germany and 58m each in the UK and Italy. In view of this, the potential scenarios seem sufficiently realistic.

Because of the weakness of Russia’s domestic manufacturers, the proportion of models from Western car makers in total sales has risen from 26% in 2002 to 78% in 2007, but the foreign influence may have now reached its zenith. This is borne out by Renault's takeover of a 25% stake in AvtoVaz (Togliatti / Russia), which with annual sales of 700,000 vehicles is regarded as the largest car manufacturer in Russia.

Germany’s Opel was one of the main winners of market share in 2007, jumping to tenth place among Russia’s top-selling foreign auto makes. The list is headed by Ford, Toyota and Chevrolet (GM), but if the 20,000 or more vehicles from GM-AvtoVaz are included, Chevrolet actually is on top. Growth of Chinese manufacturers such as Chery – up 1,200% to 15,071 vehicles – and SsangYong – up 200% to 4,345 vehicles – has spiralled.

A typical statement from a medium-sized German car manufacturer or automotive supplier – for example – could look like this: “Some 75% of our R&D capacity is based in Germany, as is 65% of our production. If we look at the sales side, however, the domestic market accounts for only 30%. The logical question is whether it makes sense to continue production in Germany at the current level." The most favoured approach at the moment is to have global site concepts, in which sister factories in the three major economic regions – the Americas, Asia and Europe – handle production for their own respective markets.

Volkswagen (VW) is thinking of expanding production capacity in the dollar zone, according to CEO Martin Winterkorn, who also answers the question of why German car manufacturers have a lower profile in the US, compared with their Japanese counterparts. He notes that European cars have a US market share of just 7%, with German companies accounting for all but 2% of this. By contrast, Japan’s manufacturers companies have a combined market share of nearly 40%.

Winterkorn also points out that it is mostly the premium European manufacturers such as Germany’s BMW, Audi and Mercedes who have established a presence in the US. Volkswagen is an exception, and in his view it is the only European car maker in a position to be competitive as a large volume player.

To increase market share and take advantage of the dollar’s weakness to improve their finances, European OEMs are stepping up the pressure on their likewise Europe-based suppliers to start manufacturing in the dollar zone. Compared with their American competitors, who are currently in the doldrums, European suppliers are in a better position, both financially and technologically, to tackle such ventures.

The potential for using plastics in car production is still far from exhausted and as a result of the stricter European requirements development of lightweight innovative components is probably being driven faster on this continent than anywhere else in the world. Although plastics have just about reached the limits of their application in automotive interiors and in car bodies, so that potential for further substitution is thus dwindling, new applications can still be found for high-performance materials under the bonnet and in the drivetrain.

Apart from the weight of the engine, its acoustic properties are also becoming increasingly important, and not only in the top-class range. In such cases, the damping properties of plastics are important to minimise noise. A polyamide oil sump, for example, reduces the noise level in the Mercedes "Actros" utility vehicle by 2dB. The part, made of PA 6.6 GF 35, also has a weight advantage of more than 50%, compared with a diecast aluminium version.

One consequence of the performance enhancement and the noise encapsulation is the higher temperature level in the vicinity of the engine. Engine oil temperatures of 145 °C are quite normal. "Polyamides will continue to hold a dominant position here," says Daimler’s Martin Keuerleber, adding that the new grades and blends will allow PA to close the gap to higher-grade plastics such as polyphthalamide (PPA) and polyphenylene sulphide (PPS).

Because of the higher temperatures and the substitution of aluminium for structural components, the use of thermosetting resins could regain some importance and win back some of the applications previously lost to thermoplastics. Water pump housings made of phenolic resin are already being used in series production and their extension to other automotive parts is imminent. Tighter space under the engine hood is leading to construction of coolant pipes and tubes with complex geometries.

As an impulse for business in future, suppliers of plastics materials and parts to the automotive industry are hoping that fresh opportunities will arise through modern-day hybrid concepts, which are becoming increasingly important. With the growing use of electric motors in the drivetrain, polymers could not only save weight, but also improve insulation properties.